One final ERCOT 4CP update for the week (and probably for the month as well).

Each day this week, a new Coincident Peak (CP) for the month of August was established! This speaks to the strength of this heat wave and how its increasing intensity throughout the week. Without a lot of rain, there has been nothing to moderate the heat over the last few days, and it’s not over yet.

The high temperature in DFW is 106° today, and the heat index in Houston (which also accounts for the humidity) will approach a lovely 110° this afternoon. Many energy managers and load forecasters alike are worn out but today is yet another high-risk day for setting a new August CP. Fridays are rare 4CP days, but today is one of those tricky situations where the CP for the month may be set if enough energy managers elect not to curtail their electric load. This heat wave is locked in place and it will not budge until Sunday or Monday when a weak front moves through North Texas. One of our forecasting services assigns an 81% probability of setting the August CP this afternoon.

Update:

Last week, we reported that there was significant damage to one of AEP’s 138 kV transmission lines in the wake of Hurricane Hanna. The damage to this transmission line significantly increased nodal congestion charges across ERCOT’s South Load Zone. This week, AEP repaired this transmission line. The blue colors in Figure 1 below show that nodal congestion costs in the Valley have significantly decreased since last week. This is good news, especially given the extreme demands placed on the grid from triple digit temperatures this week.

The heat is definitely on in Texas this week. Yesterday set a new Coincident Peak (CP) for the month of August at 72,200 MW. It is highly likely that we will break that record this afternoon, as load has already surpassed 72,900 MW. ERCOT is forecasting today’s peak demand to be 74,900 MW as shown in Figure 1. This would be a new all-time high for ERCOT. Even though today will likely set the CP for August, Thursday and Friday’s temperature forecast has risen 2 degrees since the beginning of the week. On both days, temperatures are expected to exceed 100 degrees and a new CP could be set on either day.

Calling the August Coincident Peak (CP) this week is like trying to predict whether or not we’ll have any college football this year 😟

Indeed, we set a new monthly peak yesterday at 71,600 MW, but today’s load is forecast to exceed that at 73,068 MW. We haven’t seen data yet on how much load was curtailed yesterday chasing the CP but, if history is any guide, it was probably several hundred megawatts – not enough to make up the 1,200 MW difference between yesterday’s peak and today’s forecasted peak.

The current electric load in ERCOT is exceeding what was initially forecast. The current system demand (green line), today’s forecast (blue line), and yesterday’s forecast (red line) are shown in Figure 1. There is a high risk that today’s system load will set the Coincident Peak (CP) for August.

A few weeks ago, on July 4^th weekend, it was close to 100º in many places across Texas. Some were concerned about how hot it might get as we approached the dreaded last two weeks of July and first two weeks of August. As it turns out, the summer of 2020 has been mild, and the weather has actually been quite nice!

While aggregation programs like The Texas Coalition for Affordable Power (TCAP) made sense for some cities in the early days of deregulation, these purchasing groups have not been producing the best results for cities for a long time. Cities are now being courted by TCAP to participate in a strategic hedging program that lacks clarity and competition while ultimately removing a city’s ability to reduce and control many aspects of their energy spend.

A high-pressure system has settled over the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic which will keep temperatures elevated today and tomorrow. These high temperatures will result in PJM and NYISO electric grids being pushed to the max. In NYISO, peak load of more than 29,933 MW is expected beginning at 4:00 PM today. Between 3:00 -5:00 PM, load is forecast at or above 29,700 MW, vs the current 2020 peak of 28,867 MW.

It is important to note that load this morning is coming in ~600 MW higher than yesterday’s projections, which reflects how warm it is in the New York region today. Temperatures in New York City are expected to exceed 95 degrees. 

It appears the fireworks have come early this year as several markets are facing medium to high threats for Coincident Peaks (“CPs”) today and into the early part of next week.

With temperatures climbing nationwide, we are predicting some Coincident Peak (“CP”) alert activity this week. For clients looking to save on next year’s Transmission costs and Capacity costs (PJM market only), it will be important to monitor the situation (especially real-time weather conditions) and reduce energy consumption in the late afternoon hours, to the extent possible.