The State of New York may be a microcosm of our nation’s energy past and future. New York has been trying to balance nuclear power plant retirements with new gas-fired generation while also encouraging the development of renewable power assets. On Friday morning, April 30, the last functioning nuclear reactor at Indian Point was shut down. For the past 60 years, electricity from this nuclear power plant provided New York with 565 Terawatt-hours of electricity. Before the second reactor was shut down last year, Entergy, the operator of Indian Point, estimated that the output of the two reactors supplied the Lower Hudson Valley and New York City with approximately 25% of its electricity. Environmentalists and politicians alike have described Indian Point as a threat to the safety of the millions of people who live near the plant, located 35 miles north of New York City, and many cheered its removal from service.

Given the massive drop in oil and natural gas prices last year, it is no surprise that producers reacted by dramatically reducing rig counts and the amount of gas supplied to the market. This decrease in supply was not only rational but also welcomed as it stabilized prices and storage levels. This past week, the Energy Information Agency (EIA) released their graph of historical natural gas rig counts. This chart, in Figure 1 below, shows the sharp decrease in active natural gas drilling rigs in the nation’s three largest gas-producing regions. The modest increase in total rig counts over the past six months shows that producers are unwillingness to spend significant capital to increase production, given today’s market prices.

With the clock ticking on the current legislative session in Texas, lawmakers are anxious to get some legislation passed that addresses and corrects some of what occurred during Winter Storm Uri. In the weeks following the storm, there were several pieces of legislation that were gaining traction. Senate Bill 3 (SB3) gathered the most attention, which, in its original draft, sought a complete ban on real-time, index-based products, put limits on wholesale electricity prices, and addressed issues related to the winterization of generating assets. After several votes and amendments, SB3 passed the Senate and is now with the House, but it is unclear if it will be signed into law before the current legislative session ends on May 31. House Bill 16 (HB16), however, passed both the Senate and House this month and will likely be signed into law by Governor Abbott in the coming days.

Next week, the City of Chicago will evaluate Request for Information (RFI) submissions from parties interested in taking over the city’s electricity grid from ComEd. While at some level, this may seem impractical, the intent behind the RFI is to solicit new ideas for managing energy in the nation’s third-largest city in a way that is equitable, affordable, reliable, and promotes the city’s sustainability objectives. Chicago seeks to create a resilient and clean energy metropolis for the 21st century by upgrading its electricity delivery franchise authority. In accordance with state laws and the city’s municipal codes, the city requires a franchise to deliver electricity to its residential and commercial customers.

There are several interesting developments in Washington D.C. that could impact the nation’s energy markets. With the death of Alcee Hastings (D-FL) last month, the Democratic majority in the House shrank to a mere six votes and the Senate remains split at 50/50. The razor-thin Democratic majority means it is unlikely that Congress will use the traditional legislative process to pass new energy-related legislation. Instead, as was the case with the stimulus bill, the Biden Administration is expected to use the budget reconciliation process to pass an energy bill at some point this calendar year.

Late last month, ERCOT released their preliminary Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) report. This is the seasonal report that identifies the output from all current, new, and planned generating resources and compares that amount to the forecasted peak load. Reserve margin is the difference between the forecasted peak load and the total amount of generation available to meet that demand. Recently, the reserve margin has climbed from a low of 8.6% in 2019 up to 12.6% in 2020.

To say that commodity markets have been volatile during the last 12 months is an understatement, especially for natural gas. This volatility had many drivers including one of the most active hurricane seasons in over a decade, big drops in LNG demand over the summer followed by a rebound in the fall, one of the warmest Novembers on record, and the frigid temperatures at the beginning of the new year. These factors all contributed to significant price swings in spot natural gas prices.

In the PJM power market, June 1 officially marks the beginning of the 2021/2022 delivery year. This is an important date for clients that will participate in PJM’s various demand response (DR) programs and those who are actively managing capacity tags through peak shaving. DR participation and capacity tag management allow clients to realize an additional revenue stream for their business while reducing their electricity expenses at the same time.

Wholesale electricity prices in New York City have been rising for the last several months. Figure 1 shows how forward prices for calendar years 2022 through 2025 have been trading over the last five years. Note that wholesale prices were at a low at the start of the pandemic in March 2020. Despite a correction in the late fall when the market dropped, the overall trend has been bullish for nearly a year. Additionally, this is a classic example of a contango market, where prices get more expensive with each subsequent time period in the forwards. Figure 1 also shows that the least expensive calendar year is 2022 and that 2025 is the most expensive.

ACTUALIZACIONES DEL MERCADO

• "López Obrador convierte su participación en la Cumbre del Clima en una defensa de sus programas de Gobierno", defiende el plan ‘Sembrando vida’ como el proyecto de reforestación “más grande del mundo” y una solución de largo plazo para el éxodo de migrantes desde Centroamérica.
• "Apagones en México: la enorme dependencia mexicana del gas de EUA que dejó al descubierto la tormenta invernal en Texas" La red eléctrica, abastecida por la estatal (CFE) y privados, sufrió un "déficit de generación" de energía que afectó a millones.