Near-term electricity prices in New York City continue to climb like an Aaron Judge home run that has not reached the apex of its arc. Figure 1 shows calendar year strip prices for 2023 (blue line) through 2026 (yellow line). Despite a short-lived correction in the middle of May, price movements have mostly been in one direction over the last year.
On April 1, 2022, the NYISO published the results of the six-month capacity Strip Auction for this coming summer period (May through October), establishing the first auction-based price signal for capacity for the upcoming months. This is important because capacity is the second largest cost component in a retail electricity contract. Often, when the wholesale price of energy increases, capacity prices decrease. Many expected lower capacity prices given how high wholesale power prices in the state have been, and that is exactly what happened with this most recent auction.
Like many other commodities, the price of wholesale electricity has drastically increased over the last 12 months nationwide. In the middle of March 2021, the wholesale price of electricity purchased for calendar year 2023 in NYC was trading at $35.60/MWh. Today, as shown in Figure 1, that calendar strip is trading at $67.89/MWh. The same dramatic rise in energy prices has occurred in Upstate New York as well. The wholesale price for electricity in calendar year 2023 has increased from $24.57/MWh to $42.97/MWh over the last year.
ConEdison, the largest investor-owned utility (IOU) in the state of New York, has an obligation to its investors to operate profitably year-over-year. Doing so can be a challenge due to changing operating conditions like the COVID-19 pandemic, prolonged cold snaps like the Polar Vortex of 2014, or new climate-driven policy mandates for large-scale electrification powered by renewable sources that have yet to be developed. To ensure profitability, a formal process known as a Rate Case is undertaken annually to evaluate if the utility is adequately charging electricity and natural gas customers for its services.
Earlier this month, Governor Hochul proposed legislation that would require all buildings constructed after 2027 to produce zero emissions on-site. This proposal is like the New York City Bill, Int 2317, that passed last month, prohibiting the combustion of fossil fuels on-site in new construction starting in 2025. While new wind and PV solar generation are the most frequently discussed solutions to support the anticipated increase in electricity resulting from these new rules, energy storage is now at pace to become the next most recognized piece of the technology puzzle.
New York City’s electricity is primarily generated by fossil fuel-fired power plants which typically produce higher levels of greenhouse gases than generators in the rest of the state. Physical bottlenecks in the City’s electrical transmission infrastructure have limited its ability to receive additional power from zero-emission generators located in other parts of the state or neighboring regions. The lack of downstate renewable generating assets and physical constraints have created a challenge for the state in reaching its carbon reduction targets established in the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA).
In October we discussed heating oil in New York City and the potential liabilities purchasers may have in the future given the city’s established clean energy policy goals in the Climate Mobilization Act (CMA) and the state’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA). As New York continues to focus on winter heating needs and the city's energy mix continues to evolve, the NYC district steam network, like fuel oil, may stand in the crosshairs of carbon policy in the years to come.
Heating oil is facing an image issue in New York City. Pressure continues to mount against fossil fuels from many angles including environmental groups, policymakers, and competing energy sources that are either cheaper, cleaner, now or potentially both cleaner and cheaper in the future. With the Climate Mobilization Act serving as the primary platform for the city’s campaign against carbon emissions, many are wondering, “is the writing on the wall for heating oil in New York?”
For as long as we can recall, there has been a significant difference between the price of capacity in upstate New York compared to capacity prices in New York City. It was common for capacity to trade at $3 to $5/MW-day in upstate New York and $15 to $18/MW-day downstate.
It comes as no surprise to energy managers that their electric bills are often the highest during the summer months. This is due, in large part, to the additional electric loads required to keep buildings and facilities comfortable during the hottest days of the year. While the impact on those summer bills may be obvious from a consumption perspective, a less obvious but equally important factor that affects electricity expenses is the installed capacity (ICAP) tag set each summer. In New York, every electricity customer’s ICAP tag is determined by the amount of electricity used when the power grid reaches its system peak. Current New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) rules state that the system peak must occur in July and August on a non-holiday weekday. Last summer, the peak hour occurred at 5:00 PM on July 27, 2020, when the electricity demand on the grid was 30,660 MWs.
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