Join us for the energy market insights you need to know for your business. 5's Lead Energy Analyst, Eric Bratcher, provides a detailed look into each energy market during three regional webinars.

Over the last month, near-term electricity prices in New York have risen while longer-term prices have fallen. Figure 1 shows how the price of a one-year strip of electricity has traded since January 2019 for calendar years 2021 through 2025 in New York City.  Note how prices in the near-term, 2021 (blue line) and 2022 (black line), have been rising over the last several weeks after hitting lows earlier this year in April and July.  Longer term prices for calendar years 2024 (yellow line) and 2025 (red line) have been falling since the middle of July.  It is important to note, however, that despite these recent market movements, overall prices across all calendar years are trading at or near their 4-year lows.   

The coronavirus has not only significantly reduced electricity usage and peak demand across the NYISO and PJM regions, it has also dramatically changed how retail electricity suppliers approach fixed price electricity offers to clients. In order for suppliers to generate fixed price offers, they first gather and review the previous 12 months of historic usage data, including the volume of electricity consumed (MWhs) and the peak demand (MWs).

PJM:

Temperatures throughout the northeastern U.S. are expected to approach or exceed 90°F this afternoon, driving electric demand close to 2020 summer highs.

New York City’s Local Law 33/95 will require building owners to post their Energy Efficiency Rating Label in the next 90 days. In December 2017, the New York City Council passed Local Law 33/95, requiring building owners to post this label in a conspicuous location near each public entrance. This is required for all buildings over 25,000 square feet that are listed on the 2020 Covered Buildings List for benchmarking compliance. The intent of this law is to provide transparency into a building’s energy usage and efficiency.

NYISO:

Temperatures in New York City are expected to remain in the mid-90s throughout Monday. Even though precipitation is likely in the 7-10 day range, it is expected that Monday (7/27) will approach the year-to-date system peak of 29,979 MW which was set last Monday (7/20).

A high-pressure system has settled over the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic which will keep temperatures elevated today and tomorrow. These high temperatures will result in PJM and NYISO electric grids being pushed to the max. In NYISO, peak load of more than 29,933 MW is expected beginning at 4:00 PM today. Between 3:00 -5:00 PM, load is forecast at or above 29,700 MW, vs the current 2020 peak of 28,867 MW.

It is important to note that load this morning is coming in ~600 MW higher than yesterday’s projections, which reflects how warm it is in the New York region today. Temperatures in New York City are expected to exceed 95 degrees. 

It appears the fireworks have come early this year as several markets are facing medium to high threats for Coincident Peaks (“CPs”) today and into the early part of next week.

A fixed price electricity contract is the most common product selected by commercial clients throughout the deregulated markets in the US. And while the cost of the energy (the electrons moving through the wires) is the often the largest and most volatile part of a retail electricity price, there are several other electricity cost components that are built into that retail price.

May 2020 it is likely to be the 5^th month in a row where Real-Time LMP (spot) prices in New York City (NYISO Zone J) have settled at their lowest levels in ten years. Figure 1 shows the monthly settlement price in Zone J from 2011 to 2020. Note that the first five months of 2020, shown in the dark green line, are less than all other monthly settlement prices.