With temperatures starting to cool down and the days shortening by almost two minutes per day, it seems like the summer might be in the rearview mirror.  With the clarity of hindsight, we thought a market review across the regions and the ISOs for the summer would be appropriate.

Figure 1. Mean Temp (F) ending Sept 30, 2023, by NOAA      Figure 2. Mean Temp (F) ending Sept 30, 2024, by NOAA

Since weather is one of the biggest short-term drivers of electricity demand and volatility, let’s start with a quick look at the difference between the last two summers compared to the 30-year averages, according to the National Weather Service. 

As we approach the end of August, the focus of the summer typically begins to shift towards things like kids returning to school, parents seeking a more normal schedule, the excitement and optimism of each football team’s upcoming season, and hopefully milder temperatures across our power grids.

Given this, we thought it would be appropriate to give a quick update of how the summer has played out so far, by region and commodity (gas and power).

DALLAS, July 16, 2024

Industry veteran Tracy Hodge joins 5, a leading energy advisory firm in North America, as Senior National Energy Advisor.

5 is pleased to announce that industry veteran Tracy Hodge has joined the company. Tracy brings an impressive background spanning nearly two decades in the retail energy sector to her new role at 5. Prior to joining 5, Tracy managed the Interactive Energy Group (IEG) brokerage business, where she drove significant growth and innovation. IEG is a wholly owned subsidiary of Just Energy. She also held key roles at Ambit Energy and Save On Energy, developing strategic partnerships and leading product marketing initiatives that substantially enhanced customer experiences and business profitability.

ERCOT 

There are two words that describe the reaction of most commercial clients shopping for electricity in Texas: Sticker Shock. Figure 1 shows how the wholesale price of electricity for calendar years 2025 through 2028 has traded over the last four years. In ERCOT, electricity markets were at all-time lows of approximately $20/MWh in the months immediately before the pandemic. Over the last 48 months, power prices in ERCOT have more than doubled as wholesale prices are now more than $50/MWh for calendar years 2025 through 2028. The steady rise of electricity prices in ERCOT is largely driven by concerns that there is not enough supply to meet growing demand across the state. This demand is coming from power-hungry data centers used to support the rapid growth in AI, technology, and cryptocurrency mining in addition to manufacturing and population growth throughout the state. While substantial amounts of electricity from new solar and wind-generating assets have come online, those intermittent resources cannot be counted on to operate on demand. These are some of the dominant factors that have pushed up wholesale electricity prices in ERCOT.  

One of the most common questions clients ask when purchasing electricity or natural gas is, “How much money am I going to save?” This is a reasonable question and for many years, savings could be realized because energy prices had been trending lower. Figure 1 shows how the NYMEX has settled over the last 31 years. This chart shows that natural gas hit its peak in 2006 in the wake of Hurricane Katrina and Rita where gas prices approached $14/Dth. 

DALLAS (May 5, 2023) 

5, one of North America’s top energy advisoryand management firms, announced its acquisition of BidURenergy(“BUE”) and NRG Advisory Services from NRG Energy, Inc. Based in Buffalo, NY,BUE and NRG Advisory Services provide a full suite of exceptional brokerage and energy advisory services to clients throughout the Northeast. 

The Beta Crude Connector (BCC) project is jointly owned by Frontier Midstream Solutions IV, LLC (FMSIV) and ConocoPhillips. FMSIV is the operator of BCC. BCC is one of the premier midstream solutions providers in the Midland Basin. The BCC system provides crude oil gathering and transportation services in the Midland Basin across Martin, Midland, Ector, and Andrews Counties, Texas. This system consists of approximately 90 miles of crude oil transportation pipeline and 200,000 barrels of operational storage in the Midland Basin of West Texas. The BCC project has the capacity to deliver nearly 180,000 barrels per day of crude oil to multiple delivery points, accessing local refineries and connecting to multiple downstream pipelines.

Shriners Children’s began out of the polio epidemic in the late 1910s, with the first hospital opening in Shreveport in 1922. Today, they operate locations throughout the US and in two other countries, all with the same mission: to change and improve the lives of children. In addition to top-of-the-line treatments for children, Shriners also excels in research and physician education. With specialties in orthopedics, burns, craniofacial conditions, and many more, the hospitals follow the vision of the Shriners Fraternity to serve mankind through the care of children.

Xpressdocs was founded nearly 25 years ago as an innovator in marketing technology solutions and helps clients build better brands by providing unique products. Xpressdocs is focused on the creation, production, and distribution of branded materials, marketing collateral, and communications with solutions that streamline processes, automate tasks, and empower a distributed workforce throughout North America.

5 began working with The Museum of Modern Art, New York by providing services that helped the museum capitalize on energy-related tax rebates that are available to non-profit institutions in Con Edison’s service territory. Recently, with rising energy prices, MoMA contracted 5 to help develop a new and proactive procurement strategy for the museum’s natural gas and electricity requirements. 5’s energy team worked with the museum to develop a plan that makes incremental purchases in a rising and volatile energy market. Applying these best practices enables the museum to reduce its exposure to volatile prices while also lowering energy costs over time.

5 also assisted MoMA in processing and submitting an application to the New York Power Authority (NYPA) to obtain an allocation of low-cost hydroelectricity through the ReCharge NY program. The successful electricity allocation from this program, which is available to qualified businesses and non-profits throughout the state, materially lowers MoMA’s energy costs over the seven-year term of this award.

5 is privileged to work with an institution like MoMA that is committed to preserving, promoting, and inspiring the arts today and for the next generation of artists.