The election was a resounding win for President-Elect Trump and provides him with a clear mandate to change federal energy policy. His ability to implement policies is further supported by the fact that the Republican party now controls the Senate and may control the House of Representatives. In light of this historic shift, we have provided a short summary of the likely energy policy changes to be implemented by the Trump Administration and their impact on energy prices. While our position has been that the outcome of the election will not significantly affect near-term prices, there are factors that may influence prices in the long term.

In late August, we wrote that while the result of the Presidential election will have a significant impact on Federal energy policy, it will not materially affect energy prices. We now have a somewhat clearer understanding of Vice President Harris’ energy policy, and we continue to maintain that while several Biden climate initiatives are at risk, the election will not significantly impact near-term energy prices. In fact, as recently noted by The Economist, “Green subsidies will probably survive Mr. Trump’s re-election, and Big Oil will probably do just fine under Ms. Harris.”[1]

Below, we break down a few of these key energy policies and explain why most are not actually in play.

The departure of President Biden and the nomination of Vice-President Harris challenges anyone predicting the impact of the 2024 election on energy policy. Unlike President Biden or former President Trump, both of whom have clear track records on energy policy, Vice-President Harris has said almost nothing to-date about her administration’s approach to the energy market or climate change. In her speech accepting the Democratic Party’s nomination, Vice-President Harris did not use the word “energy,” and there was only a single reference to climate change – that we need “[t]he freedom to breathe clean air, and drink clean water and live free from the pollution that fuels the climate crisis.” President Trump’s stance on energy-related policies is better known, and we expect his administration will take regulatory action to help coal, natural gas and nuclear power to better compete with renewables.  Notwithstanding this policy shift, our view is that a second Trump administration will not have any significant effect on near-term energy prices. Electricity and natural gas market fundamentals and the overall balance of supply and demand will likely be the main drivers of energy prices over the next six to twelve months regardless of who wins the election in November. 

2024 will be a busy year for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). FERC is typically run by five commissioners, appointed by the President of the United States and confirmed by the Senate.¹ With Commissioner Glick stepping down at the end of 2022 and Commissioner Danly stepping down at the end of 2023, FERC is down to three commissioners, Democrat Willie Phillips (appointed Chairman by President Biden in February 2024), Republican Mark Christie, and Democrat Allison Clements. Commissioner Clements’ term expires on June 30, but she is expected to remain at FERC until the end of the year. With the election in full swing, we do not expect President Biden to seek confirmation for additional Commissioners (FERC rules mandate that no more than three members are from one political party).